Green Car Congress: Germany Aiming for 1M EVs and PHEVs by 2020

Green Car Congress: Germany Aiming for 1M EVs and PHEVs by 2020: "Germany Aiming for 1M EVs and PHEVs by 2020
28 November 2008
Vwbattstrat
Battery costs are the largest hurdle for a successful market for electric vehicles, according to a VW presentation at the conference. Click to enlarge.

The German federal government wants to take strong measures towards electric and hybrid vehicles in the next ten years, with the goal of putting one million electric (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) vehicles onto Germany’s roads by 2020. Germany currently has a car parc totalling about 46.1 million vehicles, according to figures published by the European Automobile Manufacturers’s Association (ACEA), with a total vehicle fleet of around 49.7 million as of 2006.

The plan, announced during a German national strategy conference on electric mobility (Nationale Strategiekonferenz Elektromobilität) held in Berlin earlier this week, was drafted jointly by the departments of Economics, Transport, Environment, and Education & Research. It will be finalized and put into legislation early next year.

In his keynote speech, the German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel announced, “Germany shall become a lead market for electric mobility.” His colleague, Transport Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee, added, “By proving electricity from renewable sources for transport, we can succeed in creating sustainable and climate friendly mobility for the future.” Dagmar Wöhrl, Undersecretary of state with the Economics department, pointed out the opportunity to gain economic independence from oil imports, and Thomas Rachel, representing the Economics and Research department drew attention the chances for strengthening Germany in the domain of battery research and production.

Referring to tax breaks in France and the US, Matthias Wissmann, the president of the German Association of Automakers (VDA) said that “A broad introduction of electric mobility requires providing incentives that promote a change of the power train technique and that make the additional cost of the battery acceptable to the buyer.”

Some 600 participants, mostly executives from German automakers, suppliers, utilities, research institutions, and NGOs attended the conference which had been organized by VDI/VDE-IT. German automakers presented their recently announced electric and hybrid vehicles, such as the BMW Mini E (earlier post), the Daimler E-Smart (earlier post), and the Volkswagen Golf Twin Drive (earlier post).

Furthermore, lightweight vehicles like the two seated TWIKE, and a battery powered light duty commercial vehicle by EcoCraft were shown. Prior to the conference, BMW and the utility company Vattenfall had announced to cooperate in bringing 50 Mini-E to the German capital, and in setting up the required charging infra-structure in spring next year.

In June, the German government and industry partners launched the “Fleet test: electric drive vehicles” (“Flottenversuch Elektromobilität”), a four-year PHEV fleet and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) demonstration project. Volkswagen AG is leading the project, with E.ON (energy provider) and LTC/GAIA and Evonik/Li-Tec (lithium-ion battery providers) as principal partners. (earlier post.) Also contributing from the research side are Fraunhofer Gesellschaft, Heidelberg Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Ifeu), the German Center for Aerospace Technology (DLR), and the Westphalian Wilhelms University at Münster.

The government is also supporting the Lithium Ionen Batterie LIB 2015 (Lithium-Ion Battery LIB 2015) consortium which includes Evonik, Li-Tec, Bosch, BASF, and VW. The consortium is investing €360 million (US$455 million) for research and development of lithium-ion batteries. This will be supplemented by €60 million (US$93 million) in funding from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) over the next three years. (Earlier post.)

Resources

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Sachstand und Eckpunkte zum Nationalen Entwicklungsplan Elektromobilität
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Presentations from the conference"

Green Car Congress: Better Place Unveils Design and Deployment of Charging Spot and Electric Parking Lots in Israel

Green Car Congress: Better Place Unveils Design and Deployment of Charging Spot and Electric Parking Lots in Israel: "Better Place Unveils Design and Deployment of Charging Spot and Electric Parking Lots in Israel
8 December 2008
Bpisrael1
A Better Place EV prototype and the charging spot. Click to enlarge.

Better Place Israel introduced its first “plugged-in” parking lots as well as the charging spot design that will be used in Better Place deployments around the world. Better Place Israel CEO Moshe Kaplinsky unveiled the charging spot at the Cinema City parking lot in Pi-Glilot. (Earlier post.)

The company has begun deployment of its recharging network pilot in Israel with several municipalities including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Kefar Sava, Holon, and Jerusalem, and it plans to continue to deploy the network in public places in these cities.
Bpisrael2
Close-up of the connector. Click to enlarge.

The company has signed an agreement with Ahuzat Hof’s parking lots while it also simultaneously finishes infrastructure deployment in other areas including the Bazel parking lot, Europe house, Axelrod and the IBM corporate campus.

The charging spot is part of the Better Place electric car charging infrastructure, which includes charging spots, battery exchange stations and a service control center that plans the energy consumption of the car and the whole system. (Earlier post.)

The Better Place charging spots have been deployed in Israel with the cooperation of Nekuda D.M designing and technology Israel. During the development of the charging spot, Better Place evaluated a number of strategic criteria including: safety, user experience, mass deployment ability, maintenance, cost, and the need to blend the charging spot with the urban view.

San Francisco-based New Deal Design designed the Better Place charging spot. It includes a connector that has been developed and designed by Better Place and complies with international standards. The charging spot will be deployed in Israel, Denmark, Australia, California, Hawaii and in other countries and regions where Better Place will deploy its infrastructure.

Better Place will install an operating system in every electric car on its network. The on-board software is connected to the service control center, which is designed to provide information and solutions for driving destinations in real time. The control center centralizes the energy consumption, regulates the different demands, and produces an energy consumption plan that is fitted to each car."

Green Car Congress: KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey Highlights Impact of Downturn on Industry; Increasing Importance of Hybrid, Electric and Battery Technologies

Green Car Congress: KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey Highlights Impact of Downturn on Industry; Increasing Importance of Hybrid, Electric and Battery Technologies: "KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey Highlights Impact of Downturn on Industry; Increasing Importance of Hybrid, Electric and Battery Technologies
10 January 2009
Kmpg2009a
Concerns about the global economy and environmental issues have grown steadily in importance to the industry, according to the latest survey findings. Source: KPMG. Click to enlarge.

The just-released tenth consecutive annual survey of senior global auto executives carried out by KPMG firms—The KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2009—highlights the impact of the economic crisis on the global automotive industry. The survey found that sales and profitability expectations are down sharply; that more bankruptcies are expected, along with intensive restructuring; that costs must be cut, meaning process innovation will have to intensify; and that auto execs expect that customers will become more discriminating, and more concerned with total cost of ownership.

However, the industry also sees great opportunities in new technologies, particularly alternative fuel and fuel efficiency technologies. Despite the fall in oil prices during late 2008, companies have increased their sales expectations for hybrid and alternative propulsion vehicles.

The automotive industry is clearly facing an unprecedented crisis—a crisis that companies fully expect will reshape the industry. But even amid crisis conditions, the long-term concerns of automotive companies remain strikingly stable: developing and leveraging technology in an era of gradual but inexorable shift away from oil dependence. One of the lessons of the 2009 survey is that companies that manage that shift successfully are likely to be the industry leaders of the future.

The 2009 survey was more extensive than in previous years: 200 respondents took part in the survey between September 22 and October 31 2008, including companies in the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

Some key findings of the survey include:

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One in four auto executives believing that the profitability of their business will decrease between 2009 and 2013.
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The numbers of executives who highlighted the risk of company insolvencies or bankruptcies has more than doubled (77%). Major producers are the most pessimistic, with 87% of executives predicting increasing number of business failures.
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High costs and declining economies will drive restructuring, including more mergers and acquisitions and alliances.
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In emerging markets, prospects are being scaled back fast, as consumer markets are hit by rapid credit contraction.
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Technology and innovation remain key to the future of the industry, with fuel efficiency, advanced fuel technologies and environmental pressures considered the most important trends.
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Fear of overcapacity has increased significantly. Last year 70% of the auto mangers believed that too many cars were produced. Now all respondents believe that overcapacity is a problem. The proportion of respondents that expect overcapacity of 11-20% in the next 5 years has almost doubled in comparison with the previous year’s results increasing from 32-59% and one in five respondents even expect overcapacity of at least 21%.
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Consumers are becoming increasingly price sensitive. Respondents are expecting cost to be an increasingly important factor in consumer purchase decisions, more so that the quality of the vehicle. Nearly all respondents (96%) are convinced that lower fuel consumption will be the most important criteria in the next 5 years and affordability of vehicles is likely to be more important than quality in Europe.
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Chinese and Indian auto brands are expected to significantly expand their market share according to respondents. 81% of respondents believe that Chinese manufacturers will increase their market share between 2009 and 2013. Similarly 78% expect a positive development for Indian auto brands. There is also quite a positive outlook in Germany 60% of the experts interviewed expect VW to increase its market share. 40% of respondents expect BMW’s market share to rise and 32% predict a market share rise for Mercedes. US manufacturers on the other hand are losing out. Two-thirds of respondents believe that GM, Ford and Chrysler will lose market share.
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Respondents expect the auto industry in emerging markets to grow faster than in all other regions. Outside China and India, the biggest potential growth is expected in Central and Eastern Europe as well as central and south America especially in Brazil.

The current economic climate is having an unprecedented impact on the automotive industry. The combination of evaporating consumer confidence combined with significant restrictions on available finance, uncertainties over residual values and inherited overcapacity have created the automotive industry's “perfect storm”.

Although there are turbulent times ahead and the level of restructuring globally will be unprecedented, I believe we will look back on 2009 as the year the automotive industry addressed its legacy issues of overcapacity, productivity and inherent duplication.
—Mike Steventon, Automotive Partner at KPMG (UK)

Kpmg2009b
Manufacturing fuel-efficient vehicles was identified as the most important trend. Source: KPMG. Click to enlarge.

Despite the current crisis, the respondents are hopeful for the future of the automotive industry, based on the development of alternative fuels, new technologies and the potential in the emerging markets.

In terms of product directions, fuel efficiency improvements (29% of respondents), alternative fuel technologies (23%) and environmental pressures (22%) are considered the three most influential trends in the automotive industry. Only 3% considered rising fuel costs an important trend.
Kpmg2009c
Hybrid systems and electric and battery technology increased in importance. Source: KPMG. Click to enlarge.

Respondents continued to consider hybrid systems to be the most important industry innovations, and with even greater conviction than in 2007—91% of respondents consider hybrids important in 2008, up from 79% in 2007.

Sales expectations for hybrid vehicles have also risen sharply: in 2007, only 27 percent of companies thought that hybrid sales would exceed 800,000 units in the year ahead; in 2008, 80 percent of respondents think that sales will exceed 1.5 million units in the year ahead.

Electric and battery technology also rose sharply in companies’ ratings of importance, from 60% to 82%. The importance of fuel cell technology dropped only slightly, from 78% to 76%. Ethanol and other alternative fuels dropped from 56% to 53%, and diesel dropped from 50% to 49%.

Resources

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Momentum: KPMG’s Global Auto Executive Survey 2009"

Green Car Congress: Chery Launches S18 Electric Vehicle

Green Car Congress: Chery Launches S18 Electric Vehicle: "Chery Launches S18 Electric Vehicle
19 February 2009
S18
The S18 EV. Click to enlarge.

China automaker Chery has begun introduced the S18 EV, an all-battery electric vehicle it developed in-house. The S18 electric vehicle has a range of 120 to 150 km (75 to 93 miles) when fully charged, with a top speed of 120 km/h (75 mph.).

The S18 features a 336V 40 kW electric drive system, powered by a battery pack built with 40 Ah lithium-ion iron phosphate batteries. At 220V, charge time is 4-6 hours. Fast charging will provide 80% of pack capacity in 30 minutes.

As part of China’s “863” initiative, Chery has developed research and development capabilities in power electronics and electric machines, advanced power batteries and battery management systems.

In addition to its development of the S18 EV, Chery has developed high-performance low-emission gasoline engines (1.6/2.0 CBR VVT); a mild hybrid system (BSG); a high-speed high-pressure common-rail direct injection diesel engine (1.9 TCI); a moderate hybrid System (ISG); and flexible-fuel vehicles (methanol + ethanol + gasoline + CNG). In January, Chery launched its A5 BSG (Belt-Driven Starter Generator) hybrid model."

Green Car Congress: Global Energy Consumption Rises as Supplies Lag; Coal Still the Fastest Growing Fuel in the World

Green Car Congress: Global Energy Consumption Rises as Supplies Lag; Coal Still the Fastest Growing Fuel in the World: "Global Energy Consumption Rises as Supplies Lag; Coal Still the Fastest Growing Fuel in the World
18 June 2008
Bpstat1
Global consumption of energy, in million tonnes of oil equivalent. Click to enlarge.

According to the just-published BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008, the ongoing strength of world economic growth last year, despite financial market turmoil which began in August, continued to support global energy consumption. Although growth in primary energy consumption slowed in 2007 compared to 2006, at 2.4% it was still above the 10-year average for the fifth consecutive year.

Coal remained the fastest-growing fuel, but oil consumption grew slowly. Oil is still the world’s leading fuel, but has lost global market share for six consecutive years, while coal has gained market share for six years.

The defining feature of global energy markets remains high and volatile prices, reflecting a tight balance of supply and demand. This has put issues such as energy security and alternative energies at the forefront of the political agenda worldwide.
—Tony Hayward, BP CEO

The oil price has been on an upward path for more than six years, which according to BP’s data series going back to 1861, is the longest period of rising prices on record.

Dated Brent crude oil averaged $72.39 per barrel in 2007, an increase of 11%. Prices rose steadily throughout the year, from a low of just over $50 in mid-January to above $96 by year-end. Temporary bottlenecks caused the USA benchmark WTI to trade at a discount to Brent for the first time since 1979. Discounts for heavy, sour crudes remained high reflecting constraints on upgrading capacity in refining.

Global oil consumption grew by 1.1% in 2007, or 1 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly below the 10-year average, according to the Review, while global oil production fell by 0.2%, or 130,000 bpd, the first decline since 2002.

Consumption in the oil exporting regions of the Middle East, South and Central America, and Africa accounted for two-thirds of the world’s growth. The Asia-Pacific region grew by 2.3%, even though growth in China and Japan was below average, with strong growth in a number of emerging economies. OECD consumption fell by 0.9%, or nearly 400,000 bpd.

OPEC production dropped by 350,000 bpd due to the cumulative impact of production cuts implemented in November 2006 and February 2007. Increased output in Angola and Iraq, and growing supply of condensates/NGLs, partially offset larger cuts in other OPEC countries.

Oil production growth outside OPEC remained weak, rising by just over 200,000 bpd in 2007; OECD output fell for a fifth consecutive year. FSU (Former Soviet Union) output rose by nearly 500,000 bpd, with Azerbaijan and Russia each growing by more than 200,000 bpd.

Proved oil reserves were essentially flat in 2007—at 1.24 trillion barrels—and are sufficient to meet current production for more than 41 years, according to BP. However, the 2006 world total was revised up by 31 billion barrels upon receipt of more complete information.

World natural gas consumption grew by an above-average 3.1% in 2007, although only North America, Asia-Pacific, and Africa recorded above average regional growth. The USA accounted for nearly half of the world’s gas consumption growth, driven by cold winter weather and strong demand for gas in power generation. Chinese consumption grew by 19.9% and accounted for the second-largest increment to global gas consumption. EU consumption declined by 1.6%—the second consecutive decline-in face of warm winter weather.

Gas production rose by 2.4% in 2007. The USA accounted for the largest increment to supply, growing by 4.3%, the strongest growth since 1984. EU production declined by 6.4%, with UK output falling by 9.5%, the world’s largest volumetric decline for a second consecutive year. A small decline in Russian production was more than offset by strong growth elsewhere in the FSU. China and Qatar recorded the second- and third-largest increments to production, increasing by 18.4% and 17.9% respectively.

LNG shipments rose by 7.3%, supported by continued growth in shipments from Qatar and Nigeria. USA LNG receipts rose by one-third as a large price premium to European spot markets resulted in the diversion of cargoes to the USA.

Other highlights of the Review include:

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Coal was the fastest growing fuel in the world for the fourth consecutive year. Global consumption rose by 4.5%. Consumption growth was widespread, with growth in every region except the Middle East exceeding the 10-year average. Chinese coal consumption rose by 7.9%, the weakest growth since 2002, but more than two-thirds of global growth. Indian consumption rose by 6.6%, and OECD consumption rose by 1.3%, both above average figures.
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Nuclear power output fell by 2%, the steepest decline on record. However, more than 90% of this decline was accounted for by Germany and Japan—which saw the world’s largest nuclear power plant closed following an earthquake. Hydroelectric generation increased by 1.7%, slightly below the 10-year average. Increased capacity in China and Brazil was partially offset by drought-related declines in the USA and Southern Europe.
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Renewable energy remains a small share of total global energy use, but most renewable sources experienced rapid growth in 2007. Ethanol output rose by 27.8%. Global capacity for wind and solar electricity generation grew broadly in line with historical averages of 28.5% and 37%, respectively.

Resources

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008"

Green Car Congress: Volkswagen and Toshiba to Partner on Electric Drive, Power Electronics and Batteries

Green Car Congress: Volkswagen and Toshiba to Partner on Electric Drive, Power Electronics and Batteries: "Volkswagen and Toshiba to Partner on Electric Drive, Power Electronics and Batteries
12 February 2009

Volkswagen AG and the Toshiba Corporation signed a letter of intent to cooperate for the development of electric drive units and the accompanying power electronics for Volkswagen’s planned New Small Family. Furthermore, Volkswagen and Toshiba are planning the development of battery systems with a high specific energy density for the next generation of electric vehicles.

Volkswagen’s objective, said Prof. Dr Martin Winterkorn, chairman of the board of management, is to be the first manufacturer to provide an emissions-free, affordable and safe large-scale production electric vehicle.

Volkswagen is forging ahead with the development of future drive technologies in many different areas. In order to further strengthen our position, Volkswagen is investing in the long term and is offering cooperation projects to other companies. One of the important components in this context is the cooperation with Toshiba. I am convinced that this will be a major step forward towards the development of series production electric vehicles for our customers.

A considerable amount of research and development work still has to be carried out until we can produce the electric vehicle, in the field of lithium-ion battery technology in particular and this is an area in which the Volkswagen Group is working with further potential technological partners alongside Toshiba.
—Prof. Dr Martin Winterkorn

Among its other efforts, Toshiba is commercializing its new fast-charging SCiB (Super Charge ion Battery) lithium-ion battery (earlier post). For the SCiB, Toshiba adopted a new non-carbon anode material offering a high level of thermal stability; a high flash point electrolyte; and a structure resistant to internal short circuiting and thermal runaway. Toshiba said that for the automotive market, it plans initial application in hybrid cars, and intends to extend the application to electric cars in the future after advancing development of a high-performance SCiB cell.

Toshiba launched the SCiB with a 4.2 Ah cell version. In May 2008, Toshiba said it is developing a 3.0 Ah high-power version of the cell specifically for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) applications. (Earlier post.)

In September 2008, Cannondale Sports Group, a global provider of branded bicycles and a division of Dorel Industries, Inc., selected the SCiB battery to provide the power battery module for a new electric bicycle for the North American and European markets. (Earlier post.)

Toshiba’s SCiB 24V/4.2 Ah module will be installed in the Tailwind, a new electric bicycle Cannondale Sports Group will bring to market under the Schwinn Bicycles brand. Commercial launch of the Tailwind is scheduled for early 2009."

Green Car Congress: Two Studies on Regional Options for Reducing GHG Highlight Need for Reduction in Travel Intensity

Green Car Congress: Two Studies on Regional Options for Reducing GHG Highlight Need for Reduction in Travel Intensity: "Two Studies on Regional Options for Reducing GHG Highlight Need for Reduction in Travel Intensity
16 February 2009
Olabisi
Projected GHG emissions in Minnesota with different reduction wedges and wedge portfolios, in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent. The uppermost line in each graph represents emissions under the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Each patterned wedge depicts the reduction below BAU emission levels attributed to a given technology or practice. Olabisi et al. (2009) Click to enlarge.

Achieving targeted regional reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector will require concentrated efforts to change travel behavior and reduce vehicle miles travelled in addition to advances in vehicle technology and fuels, according to two recent studies.

A paper by researchers at the University of Minnesota, published in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology, projects GHG mitigation strategies for Minnesota, which has adopted a strategic goal of 80% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2050. A paper by researchers at the Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS), University of California–Davis, to be published in the journal Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, examines how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (&ldqou;80in50”). (Earlier version of study, earlier post.)

Minnesota. The team from the Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Initiative, University of Minnesota examined the potential for policies and technologies to effect GHG reductions across all sectors in the state. The researchers used GHG mitigation categories developed by Pacala and Socolow in a variant of the Pacala and Socolow wedge framework, but took a very different approach to analyzing the strategies’ contributions to GHG mitigation.

[Pacala and Socolow] selected diverse strategies that could each contribute a set reduction of 1 Gt carbon emissions over 50 years, whereas we examined the maximum emissions reduction possible within Minnesota for the strategies considered and did not limit these wedges in terms of a contribution to a pre-determined amount of emissions reduction. In our study, wedge refers to the size of the GHG reduction that a specific technology or strategy could contribute by 2050 compared to a trajectory of emissions representing currently implemented reduction actions and historically observed economic impacts on energy consumption (we call this trajectory “business as usual” or BAU).
—Olabisi et al. (2009)

The researchers used scenarios to evaluate potential GHG reductions from technologies determined to be feasible and available in Minnesota within 10-20 years, primarily in the transportation and electricity production sectors.

Under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, GHG emissions in Minnesota would rise to approximately 223 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent by 2050—an increase of 49% over 2005 emissions levels. Minnesota’s population is expected to grow by 30% during this time period, and real gross state product by 253%.

Transportation wedges (and resulting reductions from projected BAU 2050 emissions) include:

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Vehicle miles driven cut to 50% of 2005 levels by 2050, with ethanol blending mandates (20% reduction from 2050 BAU levels);
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Fleet vehicle efficiency increased to 55 miles per gallon (mpg) average by 2030, with current ethanol blending mandates (19% reduction);
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Complete transition to switchgrass-based ethanol (18% reduction);
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Complete fleet transition to PHEVs while retaining conventional electricity mix (9% reduction); and
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Complete transition to corn-based ethanol for personal vehicles (7% reduction).

The wedges from all sectors could be combined in several ways (portfolios) to enable the state to meet the goal of reducing GHG emissions 80% below 2005 levels. One example given combined generating all of Minnesota’s electricity from poplar biomass and sequestering the carbon emitted at the generation plants; reducing vehicle miles driven by half; improving vehicle fleet fuel efficiency to 55 mpg; and reforesting 5% of Minnesota’s land area. This resulted in the “maximum reduction” portfolio of 95% below 2005 GHG emission levels.

The trajectory of GHG emissions in Minnesota is more sensitive to the number of miles Minnesotans drive than it is to the amount of electricity they use. This makes intuitive sense, as driving is a more carbon-intensive activity than electricity consumption in terms of daily emissions. By reducing vehicle miles traveled in the state to 1999 levels by 2050, Minnesota could restrict its GHG emissions growth to only 23% above 2005 levels, rather than 49% as predicted under the BAU projection. This would mitigate the need for Minnesota to adopt as many other carbon-saving technologies.

...Public acceptance to deploy the wedges will be related to cost and the degree to which they fit within embedded political interests and require a transformation of existing infrastructures—significant for switching to renewable electricity production or reducing vehicle miles driven; less significant for producing motor fuels from corn or improving the efficiency of electricity use. Reducing vehicle miles driven in Minnesota would likely induce spillover effects, such as increased bus traffic, which were not analyzed in this study.
—Olabisi et al. (2009)

Yang
Greenhouse gas emission reductions for Silver Bullet scenarios relative to Reference scenario for Instate emissions. Yang et al. (2009) Click to enlarge.

California. The ITS study used a scenario approach looking across all transportation subsectors (light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles (buses and trucks), rail, aviation, marine, agriculture, and off-road) to explore options for reducing emissions in the transportation sector by 80%. Scenarios included strategies for reducing travel demand, improving efficiency and using advanced technologies with alternative fuels.

The researchers used a spreadsheet model, the Long-term Evaluation of Vehicle Emission Reduction Strategies (LEVERS) model, which is built around a transportation-variant of the Kaya identity, to analyze GHG emissions. The Kaya identity decomposes CO2 emissions into the product of several important parameters. While the original Kaya identity defines activity in terms of GDP, the ITS variation of the Kaya equation focuses on transport intensity as the main activity driver in the transportation sector. Transportation CO2 emissions are decomposed into four main drivers: population, travel demand, vehicle fuel consumption, and fuel carbon intensity.

Three of the Kaya parameters correspond with three main “levers” for reducing emissions: reducing transport intensity (T), energy intensity (E) and fuel carbon intensity (C). Population is not considered in this analysis as a means of reducing emissions; California’s population is expected to double between 1990 and 2050. Important considerations for determining how effective a strategy will be in reducing emissions include the following: what mitigation options are used, how broadly they are applied, and the degree of improvement they provide. Some mitigation options cannot be implemented in all subsectors.

...Transport intensity may be reduced by several means. Better land-use planning, higher-density developments, telecommuting and increased co-location of jobs and housing can reduce travel demand even while maintaining or improving the ability of people to access their desired destinations. Another method is mode-switching from private cars to mass transit (buses, trains, etc.), which has the capacity to carry a large number of people at a given time. Changes in consumer and industrial purchasing behavior can reduce activity in the freight sector.
—Yang et al. (2009)

The ITS researchers examined seven scenarios: one reference and six “Silver Bullet” scenarios. Silver Bullet (SB) scenarios describe futures in which one mitigation option, such as an advanced vehicle technology or alternative fuel, is employed to the maximum feasible extent from a technology perspective in 2050.

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Reference scenario. Doubling of population, modest increase (21%) in transport intensity, slight efficiency improvement (35%) and similar carbon intensity relative to 1990.
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Moderate efficiency SB. No breakthrough technological advances, but applies all advances in conventional technologies towards improving vehicle efficiency to achieve doubling of average vehicle efficiency from 1990. Same carbon intensity as Reference, except for some electrified rail.
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High efficiency SB. Significant breakthroughs in conventional technologies to achieve nearly triple (265%) vehicle efficiency from 1990. Same carbon intensity as Reference, except for some electrified rail.
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Hydrogen-intensive SB. Applies FCV and low-carbon hydrogen fuels (9.5 gCO2e/MJ) aggressively across most subsectors, except aviation, and provides 58% of all transport miles. Fleet market share of on-road H2 vehicles is limited to 60% in 2050. Assumes that the obstacles to use of hydrogen in heavy-duty trucks are overcome.
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Electricity-intensive SB. Electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) and very low-carbon electricity are applied across many subsectors except marine and aviation, providing 77% of all transport miles. Electricity carbon intensity (6.5 gCO2e/MJ) is 94% below the 1990 value.
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Biofuel-intensive SB. Low-carbon biofuels (16.3 gCO2e/MJ) are the primary fuels used in conventional vehicles (low efficiency) in all transport subsectors, providing 59% of all transport miles. Biofuels are limited to 15–20% of future US supply.
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Passenger Miles Travelled (PMT) SB. About 25–50% reductions in passenger travel demand for LDVs and aviation relative to Reference scenario, through better land use, smart growth, transit and high-speed rail. No alternative fuels; same carbon intensity as Reference. Improved energy intensities due to increased vehicle load factors.

The Silver Bullet scenarios show that no mitigation option can singlehandedly meet the target goal because travel demand is expected to increase significantly by 2050 and advanced technologies and fuels may not be suitable for use in all subsectors or may be limited in availability. The 80in50 scenarios illustrate that the 80% reduction goal could potentially be met in multiple ways. The Efficient Biofuels 80in50 and Electric-drive 80in50 scenarios show that if vehicle and fuels technologies become clean enough, California can preserve its current levels of mobility. The former requires more primary energy and relies heavily on biomass, while the latter uses fuel more efficiently and has the potential for a significantly more diverse resource mix. The Actor-based 80in50 scenario shows that large shifts in social and travel behavior are valuable mitigation options, especially if technology is not as successful. This scenario has the lowest energy resource requirements.
—Yang et al. (2009)

Resources

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Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Peter B. Reich, Kris A. Johnson, Anne R. Kapuscinski, Sangwon Suh and Elizabeth J. Wilson (2009) Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Climate Stabilization: Framing Regional Options. Environ. Sci. Technol., doi: 10.1021/es801171a
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Yang, Christopher, David L. McCollum, Ryan W. McCarthy, Wayne Leighty (2009) Meeting an 80% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation by 2050: A Case Study in California. Transportation Research Part D (article in press) doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2008.11.010"

Green Car Congress: Renault Powertrain Strategy: Focus on Electric Motor Development for EV Powertrains, New Technologies for Conventional Engines

Green Car Congress: Renault Powertrain Strategy: Focus on Electric Motor Development for EV Powertrains, New Technologies for Conventional Engines: "Renault Powertrain Strategy: Focus on Electric Motor Development for EV Powertrains, New Technologies for Conventional Engines
17 February 2009

Renault is currently working on the development of low-emission and zero-CO2 emissions vehicles in what it calls “a determined bid” to introduce as many effective technologies as possible at an affordable price. Its work on powertrains focuses on two main areas: the development of a range of electric motors for all-electric vehicles, and new technologies for conventional engines, including a new generation of turbocharged internal combustion engines as well as on new automatic transmissions.

Electric motors. Renault is aiming to become the industry leader in the realm of mass-market electric vehicles. The Renault-Nissan Alliance is consequently developing a comprehensive range of all-electric powertrains, with power outputs ranging from 50 to 100 kW (70 to 140 hp).

Renault says that its commitment to the development of zero-emission electric vehicles is due to a number of factors:

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Awareness of the role CO2 emissions play in global warming;
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Toughening legislation aimed at curbing CO2 emissions;
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Oil price increases;
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A growing need for urban mobility and the potentially significant market in Europe, due notably to motorists who primarily use their vehicle on a daily basis to get to and back from work—in other words urban commuters for whom electric vehicles are a workable solution;
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Lithium-ion battery technology within the Renault-Nissan Alliance thanks to Automotive Electric Supply Corp (AESC), a joint venture involving Nissan and NEC; and
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The development of new consumer patterns (monthly subscriptions, pay as you go schemes, etc.) which already operate in numerous sectors and which can be carried over to the automobile.

Renault is targeting its all-electric powertrains for a wide range of vehicle categories, from city cars and family sedans, to small and large vans. The first vehicles to feature all-electric powertrains will be a three-box sedan and a Kangoo-type van as early as 2011.

Conventional combustion engines. To achieve significant reductions in CO2 emissions from its conventional powertrains, Renault is working concurrently on:

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Fundamental vehicle design parameters: mass, aerodynamics (CdA), rolling resistance;
*

Efficient management of electrical energy (battery recharging under braking and when decelerating) and thermal energy (to speed up the climb in engine temperature);
*

Transverse technologies, including stop & start which automatically cuts the engine when the vehicle is at a standstill;
*

Widespread downsizing of internal combustion engines (smaller turbocharged engines are more efficient). This work covers both gasoline and diesel powerplants, although the greatest scope for reducing CO2 emissions concerns gasoline engines; and
*

More efficient manual and automatic transmissions.

Renault is developing a new family of modular TCe gasoline engines. (The company introduced the TCe 100 in 2007 and the TCe 130 in 2008, earlier post.)

With the imminent switch to Euro 5 and Euro 6 legislation, Renault expects gasoline engines to become an increasingly attractive proposition in diesel-oriented Europe, a trend it is trying to anticipate with a new family of three- and four cylinder TCe engines.

Based on a range of cubic capacities extending from 0.9 to 1.2 liters, they will replace the current normally-aspirated engines in the 1.2- to 1.6-liter bracket. These new engines, which will feature a low inertia turbocharger, will focus on power outputs of between 65 and 85 kW (90 and 115 hp). Renault will go on to develop more powerful versions.

The basic design of these engines will permit the use of direct fuel injection and will enable even higher specific power outputs. CO2 emissions will be cut by between 30 and 40 g/km compared with the engines they replace, and certain vehicles will be able to claim CO2 emissions of less than 100 g/km.

The first of these engines will be launched within the next two-and-a-half years, and Renault estimates that these powerplants will go on to account for some 85% of the gasoline engines it markets in Europe.

This family of modular engines is being developed within the framework of the Renault-Nissan Alliance, an approach which permits capital outlay to be shared and economies of scale to be achieved, while also allowing the development of powertrains that meet the specific needs of different regions. Renault are bringing its understanding of the European market and experience of turbocharging to the table.

On the diesel side, Renault's engineers intend to maximize the benefits of its dCi technology with evolutionary technologies aimed at enabling them to comply with upcoming emissions standards and making them even more fuel efficient. Numerous vehicles powered by these new-generation dCi engines will be able to claim CO2 emissions of less than 100 g/km, according to Renault.

Renault plans to modify its mainstay 1.5 dCi (Type K9K)—currently the most commonly sold Renault engine—enabling a reduction of approximately 20 g/km less CO2 when the new version is introduced in 2012.

An all-new 1.6 dCi 130 engine will offer peak power of 96 kW (130 hp) from launch. The 1.6 dCi represents a 16% reduction in cubic capacity compared with a current 1.9-liter diesel engine of the same power output. Renault will go on to develop more powerful versions. CO2 emissions will be reduced by 25 g/km compared with an equivalent engine, independent of improvements made to the vehicles it equips in fields such as aerodynamic performance, rolling resistance, mass, etc. It will be Euro 6-ready and is covered by 15 Renault patents.

This engine will form the core of the brand’s C-segment line-up and will also play key roles in its D-segment and van ranges. Its launch is scheduled for 2011. This project, code-named R9M, is a Renault-Nissan Alliance joint development.

The new-generation 2.0 dCi engine (Type M9R) is due to be released in 2012. In the meantime, Renault will carry over its downsizing policy to cover utility vehicles with the replacement of its current 2.5-liter engines by a 2.3 dCi unit featuring the same genetic make-up as the 2.0 dCi.

The V6 dCi (Type V9X) will continue to equip the group’s upper-range models.

Automatic transmissions. Renault is pursuing two objectives through its development of new automatic transmissions:

*

Improved mechanical efficiency compared to that of a conventional automatic transmission (with hydraulic coupling) thanks to technologies carried over from manual gearboxes; and
*

Profit from the ability of automatic transmissions to permit an engine to run at the most energy-efficient revs.

Renault will release a twin-clutch transmission within the next year. Twin clutch transmissions enable gears to be changed without interrupting the transmission of torque. Twin clutch transmissions also combine ride comfort (no jarring during gearshifts, no loss of traction) with CO2 emissions identical to those of a manual gearbox (a reduction of 15% compared with conventional automatic transmissions)."

Second Innings for Telematics - but the On-going Auto Market Crisis will Decide the Future

Second Innings for Telematics - but the On-going Auto Market Crisis will Decide the Future: "Second Innings for Telematics - but the On-going Auto Market Crisis will Decide the Future
Date Published: 19 Jan 2009


By Praveen Chandrasekar, Industry Manager, Telematics and Infotainment

Consider this - a growing European telematics market, stable North American one, 3.5 million subscriber base in South Korean space by 2010, and top events-driven Chinese telematics market. All these are showing signs of a second innings for a global telematics wave. However, this growth will face a big stumble block in wake of the recent auto market crisis sending ripples across the global auto fraternity. The most worrying factor is the sinking of General Motors (GM), which is the biggest contributor to the global telematics market through the success of its OnStar package.

The slowdown in the auto market, with major automakers such as GM and Ford facing looming crisis, will definitely put telematics in the backseat, especially in North America, as these automakers struggle to survive. Even in Europe, the crisis will force vehicle manufacturers, such as Mercedes Benz, Audi, and Volkswagen to postpone their telematics plan, focusing more on important aspects such as fuel efficiency and alternative powertrain concepts. As per Frost & Sullivan's analysis, the global telematics market, including Europe, North America, South Korea, China, and India, is projected to grow from 6.2 million units in 2008 to 16.5 million units by 2013, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.4 percent. However, with the current crisis impacting the market, the success of this conservative forecast depends on how fast things are back on track.

Chart 1
Telematics Market: Unit Shipment Analysis (World), 2008 and 2013

With majority of the OE segments across developed regions such as Europe and North America spending time looking at saving themselves, this might be the ideal time for the ever dominant Aftermarket to increase its strength further. As such, in these regions the Aftermarket products and services are much cheaper and provide more value addition, the additional pressure mounted by the current crisis might just shift consumers' attention further into the Aftermarket. Already in South Korea and China, Aftermarket is way ahead of the OE segment and growing rapidly through the involvement of telecom operators.

European and North American Market will Face the Music Most

The European telematics market is expected to grow from about €270 million in terms of revenues in 2008 to €900 million by 2013, with eCall/bCall, stolen vehicle tracking, and pay as you drive insurance expected to be the key contributors by 2013. Currently, the market for eCall/bCall in Europe is very niche and majority of the activity for stolen vehicle tracking and pay as you drive insurance is coming from the Aftermarket, especially dominant in regions such as the United Kingdom, Italy, and the Netherlands. Many European vehicle manufacturers such as Mercedes Benz, Audi, Volkswagen, and Renault have plans of introducing telematics services by 2010, especially focusing on an eCall-centric telematics package, with Mercedes Benz planning the launch of a standard mobile phone-based eCall solution for the C-Class working along with Bjorn Steiger foundation (German Safety Foundation). With the crisis deepening significantly in the later half of 2008, the year ahead needs to be watched closely to see how these manufacturers change focus to other important aspects of the vehicle. Even the ever dominant portable navigation devices (PND) market in Europe, which is increasing in terms of volumes but rapidly eroding in terms of value (revenues) due to the ongoing astronomic price drops, might see mobile phone navigation taking over as the killer device.

Needless to say, the North American telematics market will be the worst affected by the crisis. With a strong subscriber base for telematics worth more than 4 million at the end of 2008, earlier growth projections to a subscriber base of close to 7 million by 2013 sounds a bit too optimistic now, considering that 90 percent of these subscribers are coming from OnStar. All this came in an eventful year, where GM announced that OnStar will be made standard in 90 percent of its models across brands at the beginning. The first half of 2008 also saw some announcements from makers such as Chrysler, who after offering Wi-Fi in its cars, was working on a Wimax-enabled navigation systems. However, with a deadline of March 31, 2009, for the big three to restructure or atleast show concrete plans to restructure and reduce costs, all the telematics plans and forecasts for 2013 will be revised dramatically, as telematics is expected to take backseat to more important measures such as making cars more fuel efficient and working on alternative concepts such as electric vehicles. The future of telematics in what has been its strongest market till date stands a big question mark at the hands of the crisis that has devastated the market in untold proportions.

South Korea and China will Take Focus in the Transition Phase

Powered by the trio of telecommunications operators namely SK Telecom, KTF and LG Electronics, the South Korean telematics market is growing steadily. Aftermarket is the dominant segment and the total telematics market is expected to grow from 1.1 million subscribers in 2008 to 6.3 million by 2013, with Aftermarket taking share of 97 and 94 percent in 2008 and 2013, respectively.

Chart 2
Telematics Market: Market Share Analysis by Service Providers (South Korea), 2007

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Natedrive by SK Telecom is one of the most successful telematics service packages taking a massive 87 percent share of the total telematics services market in 2007 in South Korea. OEM initiatives are underway, with Hyundai/Kia offering the Mozen telematics service package offered by SK Telecom. Noteworthy point in the South Korean market is the active involvement of the telecommunications operator's community, which serves as a good benchmark for other markets such as Europe, where such efforts have failed miserably in the past.

The Chinese telematics market, on the other hand, is experiencing growth with navigation systems taking the lead due to the demand created by international events such as the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the upcoming world expo in 2010. The navigation systems market in China is expected to grow from 0.8 million units in 2008 to 6 million units by 2012, growing at a CAGR of 63 percent. The PND segment is expected to be the major contributor to the volumes in 2012 at 50 percent, taking the position from OE embedded devices in 2008 (65 percent contributor). Telematics services such as safety and security are in the inception stages in the Chinese market and are projected to grow to close to 5 million units by 2012

Finally, another interesting emerging market is India, where 2008 opened up the navigation systems market on a larger scale with unit sales of close to 50,000 propelled mainly by PNDs and mobile phone-based navigation systems. With an extremely price-sensitive consumer mindset, the future of the Indian navigation market is expected to be dominated by multifunctional mobile phones, where value to vehicle price ratio is much better justified. The Indian navigation market is expected to reach close to 500,000 units by 2016. With more focus shifting to low-cost cars and vehicle production and sales taking guard in India due to the crisis, the Indian navigation systems market is expected to be well positioned to grow at a steady rate.

Conclusion: 2009 will Unveil the Result of the Second Innings

Whilst the different regions are taking different turns with respect to telematics, one sure conclusion is that 2009 will be critical in the way things take shape in the next decade. Definitely regions such as Europe and North America will face a slowdown in terms of telematics, whilst the more emerging ones such as South Korea and China might make up for the loss from the developed markets. Cost will be a major factor in consumer choice and with all the convergence recently taking place, the mobile/smartphone equipped with a GPS and a service model operated by the telecommunications operator are expected to take center stage as the killer package. The success in the South Korean region experienced till date stands testimonial to the positive impact that can be brought about by the telecommunications operator community into the traditional telematics space.

This article is a part of Frost & Sullivan's upcoming research M3A0-18 titled “Comparative Analysis of the European, North American, Chinese, South Korean and Indian Telematics Markets”. To know more about the research or obtain the table of contents of the study, please contact the author at cpraveen@frost.com."

"Car OS" links Linux with telematics systems

"Car OS" links Linux with telematics systems: "'Car OS' links Linux with telematics systems
Feb. 05, 2009

OpenSynergy is readying a Linux-based 'car operating system' and an Intel Atom-based evaluation board for automobile infotainment systems. The COQOS platform aims to let Linux-based infotainment applications and AUTOSAR-compliant telematics modules share the same system-on-chip processor, which is virtualized by a 'micro operating system' (μOS) layer.

Interestingly, the technology is said to enable both Linux and AUTOSAR apps to share a common audio and OpenGL graphic layer, enabling AUTOSAR applications to output to multimedia displays and audio for the first time, says the company. Additional touted benefits of the approach include reducing the count of ECUs (engine control units), minimizing development costs, and even increasing fuel efficiency, by reducing the weight associated with multiple, separate vehicular computer networks.

COQOS integrates a real-time micro operating system, μOS, to partition a single SoC into multiple virtual machines (VMs). The arrangement is claimed capable of partitioning a Linux-based infotainment platform from AUTOSAR operations, which is required for safety reasons.


COQOS architecture
(Click to enlarge)


AUTOSAR (AUTomotive Open System ARchitecture) is an open, standardized automotive software architecture, jointly developed by automobile manufacturers, suppliers, and tool developers, says the AUTOSAR organization. It is said to be designed for the development of vehicular software, user interfaces, and management for all application domains.

With COQOS, the μOS micro-kernel 'plays the role' of the AUTOSAR OS required by the AUTOSAR compliant software that controls internal automobile functions, OpenSynergy says. Thus, AUTOSAR modules would likely have to be ported to the environment. Few details seem to be available about the OS, although a similar open source project evolved several years ago from the 'TelemetryBox' project. Both projects appear to be defunct now, at least as open source efforts.

IPC (interprocess communication) between AUTOSAR and Linux environments is provided by runtime environments (RTEs) that presumably run within each stack. A Virtual Application Bus (VAB), meanwhile, is said to handle communications between Linux infotainment applications.

Features listed for the COQOS framework are said to include:

* AUTOSAR 3.1 Basis Software
* AUTOSAR 3.1 RTE Generator
* Processor Resource Management
* Communication interface between AUTOSAR and infotainment
* Firewall between infotainment and AUTOSAR
* Linux 2.6
* Middleware for infotainment applications
* OpenGL graphic support
* Fast-boot mechanism
* Software updates

The framework supports both x86 and ARM architectures, says OpenSynergy. The company does not appear to have more information on the Intel Atom evaluation board at this time.

One company currently shipping Atom-based boards targeting automotive systems is Congatec, which in December launched an IVI (in-vehicle infotainment) Starter-kit based on a COM Express module with a netbook-like chipset, with added CAN bus and other automotive goodies. The Congatec Starterkit is promoted for use with the Intel-sponsored Moblin Project's IVI software, although software is currently not included in the Kit, according to reports from developers on Moblin's mailing list. Wind River announced in May of last year it planned to drive IVI development and also commercialize the stack, but apparently has not yet merged its work with the IVI project, perhaps suggesting its customers have not yet begun distributing the software. (More details on Congatec's IVI Starter Kit to follow shortly).

OpenSynergy has launched an 'ECO Partner Program' that can be joined on several levels. The company provides 'ECO Partners' with basic access to products and installation support. 'Premium ECO Partners,' meanwhile, are expected to port COQOS, as well as promote joint solutions to potential customers.

Stated Frank-Peter Bohm, CEO of OpenSynergy, 'COQOS meets different market trends: Reducing cost in system development and hardware components notwithstanding increasing demand in automotive functions. We think that modern processors [like] the Intel Atom processor are going to play an important role in that constellation.'

Availability

OpenSynergy is close to offering release 1 of COQOS and its Intel Atom evaluation board, says the company, and will show COQOS 1.0 and the Intel Atom board at the the CeBIT 2009, March 3-8 in Hannover, Germany, at Intel Pavilion P33."

MWC: Krise vermiest Mobilfunk-Branche die wichtigste Messe
Die Kapitäne der Mobilfunk-Industrie kommen an diesem Montag[1] mit tiefen Sorgenfalten zu ihrem wichtigsten Branchentreff, dem Mobile World Congress[2] in Barcelona. Die Wirtschaftskrise schneidet ihnen allen ins Geschäft – und jeder bringt seine eigenen Probleme mit.
Die auf rasantes Wachstum getrimmten Handy-Hersteller stellen sich auf einen Absatzrückgang ein – den ersten seit 2001 und erst den zweiten, seit es Mobiltelefone gibt. Die Mobilfunk-Betreiber müssen in Zeiten steigender Arbeitslosigkeit und massiver Sparprogramme bei Unternehmen um die Ausgaben ihrer Kunden bangen. Haben die Mobilfunk-Konzerne weniger Geld, können auch die Netzwerk-Ausrüster – denen es ohnehin nicht gerade glänzend geht – das erhoffte große Geschäft mit Technik für noch schnellere Datenübermittlung vorers vergessen. Dabei haben sie bereits Milliarden in die Entwicklung investiert.
Was für ein Kontrast zu den früheren Jahren in Barcelona: Für gewöhnlich schwärmte die Branche hier von grandiosen Wachstumsmöglichkeiten, feierte schicke neue Geräte und debattierte darüber, wie Handys die Welt verändern werden, von Bankgeschäften für die Dritte Welt bis hin zu glücklicheren Menschen durch mobile Internet-Kommunikation. Dieses Jahr wird das Mobilfunk-Mekka von der Realität eingeholt. Nokia, der Handy-Weltmarktführer mit fast 40 Prozent Marktanteil, muss die Produktion kappen[3], Stellen streichen und die Forschungsausgabe senken. Der Handy-Sparte von Motorola, einst die Nummer zwei der Welt, droht der Abschwung gar das Genick zu brechen[4]. Und der Netzwerk-Ausrüster Alcatel-Lucent[5], einer der Vorreiter des LTE-Formats für noch schnellere Netze, musste sich gegen Forderungen von Investoren wehren, aus dem Mobilfunk-Geschäft auszusteigen.
Der Ton in der Branche sei ein anderer in diesen Tagen und auch in Barcelona werde das zu spüren sein, glaubt ein Analyst des Marktforschungsunternehmens Strategy Analytics. "25 Jahre lang ging es darum, den Umsatz zu steigern, dieses Jahr wird es mehr darum gehen, die Kosten zu drücken." Und so erwartet Gartner-Branchenexpertin Carolina Milanesi von der normalerweise vor Neuheiten strotzenden Messe "nichts revolutionäres". Allenfalls weitere Handys mit dem von Google ins Leben gerufenen Betriebssystem Android könnten für Aufsehen sorgen. Wie viele davon in Barcelona zu sehen sein werden, blieb allerdings bis zuletzt unklar.
Wohlgemerkt, bei allen Problemen ist die Mobilfunk-Branche viel weniger von der Krise betroffen als zum Beispiel die krisengeschüttelte Autoindustrie. Außerdem: Auch wenn die Handy-Hersteller meist im Vordergrund stehen – vier Fünftel der Branchenumsätze werden mit Mobilfunk-Diensten gemacht. Und hier rechnen Marktexperten auch in diesem Jahr noch mit einem satten Plus von neun Prozent auf 950 Milliarden Dollar. T-Mobile-Chef Hamid Akhavan konnte dem Rückgang der Handy-Verkäufe sogar durchaus etwas positives abgewinnen. "Wenn die Leute ihre alten Handys behalten und weiterhin unsere Dienste nutzen, steigert das sogar unsere Profitabilität als Mobilfunk-Anbieter, da wir die neuen Geräte subventionieren", argumentierte er in einem Interview.-- Dirk ReimerBreslauer Strasse 1321465 Wentorf bei HamburgFRGEmail: dirk.reimer@googlemail.com

MOT Motorola expands M2M modules portfolio

MOT Motorola expands M2M modules portfolio: "Motorola expands M2M modules portfolio
Tue. February 10, 2009; Posted: 11:12 AM
Trade ETF’s with Less Risk! Learn more.
Feb 10, 2009 (Datamonitor via COMTEX) -- MOT Quote Chart News PowerRating -- Motorola has introduced the G30 GSM/GPRS LGA series of wireless modules, the latest addition to its machine-to-machine solutions portfolio. Motorola has said that the new land grid array (LGA) module platform is an ideal choice for the automated metering industry, as well as other machine-to-machine (M2M) segments including telematics, security and electronic point of sale.
According to the company, the G30 GSM/GPRS LGA modules feature compact dimensions of 32.2 x 20.8 x 3.4mm, its surface mount technology (SMT) eliminates the need of board-to-board connectors or RF cables, and it supports the 3GPP 7.05, 7.07 and 7.10 protocols and an additional set of Motorola proprietary commands including an internal TCP/IP stack. It also offers a programmable M2M application processor and FOTA (firmware over the air) capabilities for better flexibility.
Shamai Wasserman, vice president of Motorola Israel's strategy and business development, and director of Motorola wireless modules business unit, said: 'The G30 is consistent with Motorola's tradition as a wireless leader providing superior products that fulfill market requirements. This latest addition further strengthens Motorola's commitment to the M2M market, serving its customers with the latest technological advancements to help them design cost effective and reliable solutions.'
http://www.datamonitor.com"

Zero Hedge: Death Watch KKR Portfolio Companies

Zero Hedge: Death Watch KKR Portfolio Companies: "Friday, February 13, 2009
NXP Joins Revolver Drawdown Club

Posted by Tyler Durden at 5:13 PM

European semiconductor maker NXP, formerly Philips' semiconductor unit which was LBOed in 2006 by a consortium of KKR, Silver Lake and AlpInvest, reported it had drawn down $200 million on its revolver, after pulling another $400 million on November 26, effectively tapping out its credit facility availability. By doing this, NXP joins an infamous club consisting of Freescale, Clear Channel, and Harrah's, all of which recently drew down their available borrowings, scaring bond investors who are left wondering why the companies are in urgent need of expensive cash. As we discussed in the CCU case, this can be taken as a cheap-DIP alternative action, as hoarding cash in this manner traditionally leads to a restructuring.

Of course, NXP CFO Karl-Hendrik Sundstrom tried to put things in a good light: “In view of the continuing global financial turmoil we are drawing USD 200 million under our revolving credit facility. This is a proactive financial decision in order to secure availability of this facility in a turbulent financial market environment.”

Unfortunately the 'proactive financial decision' will cause investors to flee for the exits when the bond market opens Tuesday, and we fully expect the company's 7.875% Notes due 2014, which already trade around 27, to drop another 15-20%."

Zero Hedge: GM Considering Bankruptcy

Zero Hedge: GM Considering Bankruptcy: "GM Considering Bankruptcy

Posted by Tyler Durden at 4:28 PM

The WSJ is out with a muchly regurgitated piece, which may, however, finally end up being right. Turns out the negotiations between bondholders, the company and the intractable UAW are going nowhere in a hurry, and as the company has a February 17 deadline to report on its progress (of which there has been none), it may finally be time to pull the plug. GM's options are asking the administration for more money, which at this point has a one in a million chance of being granted (so I'm saying there's a chance), or filing bankruptcy. The latter should have been the course the company was forced to embark on long ago, as it is the only truly viable long-term option. Hopefully it also takes Chrysler with it.


'One plan includes a Chapter 11 filing that would assemble all of GM's viable assets, including some U.S. brands and international operations, into a new company. The undesirable assets would be liquidated or sold under protection of a bankruptcy court. Contracts with bondholders, unions, dealers and suppliers would also be reworked.'
As GM has already hired both financial and legal counsel to advise it in a bankruptcy, Bob Lutz recently called it a day, and the car czar never made his stage appearance, we think this may actually happen and that pretty soon."

Zero Hedge: Sirius To File Bankruptcy By February 17 If Exchange Offer Fails

Zero Hedge: Sirius To File Bankruptcy By February 17 If Exchange Offer Fails: "Sirius To File Bankruptcy By February 17 If Exchange Offer Fails

Posted by Tyler Durden at 12:19 PM

Sirius XM just filed this press release stating that unless it manages to complete an exchange offer of its 10% Convertible Notes due 2009 for a like amount of Senior Secured Notesw due 2011, it will have to file for bankruptcy. The exchange of the $400 million issue has already been accepted by holders of $172.5 million, or less than half the total. EchoStar's Charlie Ergen likely holds a blocking stake in the issue, so the fate of Sirius is likely in his hands, and as such as bankruptcy filing on Tueday of next week is very likely.

The press release states:


The exchange of 10% Convertible Senior Notes due 2009 for new Senior Secured Notes is part of a larger restructuring effort. The Company is in discussions with others with respect to transactions that could refinance some of its and its subsidiaries' indebtedness. These transactions may not be successfully consummated. If these transactions are not consummated, it may be forced to file for bankruptcy protection as early as February 17, 2009.
More details on the full exchange offer are to be filed later today in an 8K."

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide: "KKR’s NXP Draws on Bank Line Amid Global Semiconductor Slump

By Pierre Paulden
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- NXP BV, Europe’s third-largest maker of semiconductors, borrowed $200 million of its bank line, according to a statement.
The company, bought by a group led by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Bain Capital LLC in 2006, also drew down $400 million of the 500 million-euro ($644.8 million) revolving bank line on Nov. 26, according to the statement distributed by Business Wire.
Freescale Semiconductor Inc., the Austin-based chip-maker taken private by buyout firms led by Blackstone Group LP in 2006, borrowed from its credit line last month, taking advantage of debt arranged before financial markets seized up in 2007. Banks are funding the revolvers after global semiconductor sales declined 2.8 percent last year, the first yearly drop since 2001, as the economic slowdown curbed demand for mobile phones and electronics, the Semiconductor Industry Association said Feb. 2.
“This is a proactive financial decision in order to secure availability of this facility in a turbulent financial market environment,” Karl-Henrik Sundstrom, chief financial officer for Eindhoven, Netherlands-based NXP, said in the statement.
The six-year revolver, arranged by Deutsche Bank AG, Merrill Lynch & Co. and Morgan Stanley, matures in 2012, according to Bloomberg data.
A revolving credit line can be borrowed from again once it’s repaid.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at ppaulden@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 13, 2009 17:10 EST"

FTD.de - IT+Telekommunikation - Nachrichten - Infineon sucht Heil in Zukäufen

FTD.de - IT+Telekommunikation - Nachrichten - Infineon sucht Heil in Zukäufen:

Infineon sucht Heil in Zukäufen

von Thomas Fromm (München)

Der defizitäre Halbleiterhersteller Infineon nimmt für Zukäufe höhere Schulden in Kauf. "Wir wollen zu den Konsolidierern und nicht zu den Konsolidierten gehören", sagte Vorstandschef Wolfgang Ziebart im Interview der FTD.

"Wir werden auch dann Zukäufe ins Auge fassen, wenn wir nicht in nächster Zeit große Qimonda-Aktienpakete verkaufen", sagte Ziebart. "Wenn wir eine sinnvolle Übernahme sehen, können wir jederzeit auch über andere Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten nachdenken. Wir verfügen über ausreichend Kreditlinien."

Infineon-Chef Wolfgang Ziebart

Bislang hatte Ziebart betont, dass er Akquisitionen mit Erlösen aus dem Verkauf von Qimonda-Anteilen finanzieren will. Die im vergangenen Jahr abgespaltene Speicherchip-Tochter ist mit 14 Prozent der Anteile an der New Yorker Börse notiert, der Rest gehört nach wie vor Infineon. Das Unternehmen hat derzeit einen Marktwert von 3,1 Mrd. Euro.

Wegen der schwankungsanfälligen Konjunktur bei Speicherchips kann der Konzern kaum planen, wann und in welcher Größenordnung er sich von weiteren Qimonda-Aktien trennen kann. Infineon selbst baut Logikchips für Kommunikationsgeräte, Automobile und Industrieanwendungen. Deren Preise sind traditionell weniger schwankungsanfällig.

Laut Ziebart liegt der Zyklus für DRam-Speicherchips zurzeit "im unteren Bereich". Die Qimonda-Aktie hat von ihrem bisherigen Höchststand Ende vergangenen Jahres rund ein Drittel an Wert verloren. Analysten erwarten für die kommenden Monate einen weiter anhaltenden Preisverfall für Speicherchips.

Der Manager steht unter enormem Erfolgsdruck: Seit seinem Börsengang im Frühjahr 2000 hat Infineon Milliardenverluste angehäuft; allein in den vergangenen zehn Quartalen verlor der Konzern insgesamt über 800 Mio. Euro. Gleichzeitig kursieren in der Branche immer wieder Gerüchte, Finanzinvestoren könnten die Schwäche des Dax-Konzerns für eine Übernahme nutzen.

Ziebart machte deutlich, dass trotz der Probleme beim Qimonda-Verkaufsprozess Zukäufe für ihn sehr hohe Priorität haben. Bereits im vergangenen Monat hatte Infineon den Kauf des Mobilfunkgeschäfts des US-Konkurrenten LSI für mindestens 330 Mio. Euro angekündigt.

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Die Sparte ist für Infineon vor allem wegen ihrer Kundenbeziehungen zum koreanischen Konzern Samsung interessant. "Technologie müssen wir in der Regel nicht kaufen, die haben wir selber. Wir prüfen, welche Kundenbeziehungen uns durch eine Übernahme entstehen", betonte Ziebart im FTD-Interview auch im Hinblick auf künftige Übernahmen. Der Zukauf von Kunden wie bei LSI ist für Ziebart vor allem deshalb wichtig, weil Infineon durch die Pleite des Handybauers BenQ Mobile einen Großkunden verloren hat. Sowohl Infineon als auch BenQ Mobile gehörten einst zum Siemens-Konzern. Der Kauf des LSI-Handygeschäfts war die bislang größte Akquisition Infineons seit dem eigenen Börsengang im Frühjahr 2000.

Der Börsengang der Sparte Qimonda im August 2006 war für den Konzernchef eine herbe Enttäuschung: Die Erstnotiz in New York stieß auf nur wenig Interesse der Investoren; am Ende lag der Ausgabepreis von 13 $ je Aktie weit unter dem von Infineon angepeilten Wert von 18 $. Vor einigen Wochen schließlich kündigte Ziebart an, den jetzigen Anteil an Qimonda bis zur Hauptversammlung Anfang 2009 auf unter 50 Prozent zu reduzieren - verbliebene Anteile sollen schließlich als Sachdividende an Infineon-Aktionäre ausgegeben werden.

FTD.de - IT+Telekommunikation - Nachrichten - Infineon prüft Verschlankung:

Infineon prüft Verschlankung

von Thomas Fromm (München)

Infineon-Chef Wolfgang Ziebart prüft die Abgabe weiterer Beteiligungen und Geschäftsfelder, um sich auf profitable Geschäftsfelder zu konzentrieren. Ziebart stellte sich der FTD im Interview.

"Wenn wir erkennen, dass wir ein Geschäft nicht mit einem angemessenen Aufwand profitabel machen und in eine gute Position bringen können, dann werden wir uns von dem Geschäft trennen", sagte Ziebart der FTD.

Der Vorstandsvorsitzende von Infineon, Wolfgang Ziebart

Erst vor zwei Wochen hatte der Münchener Halbleiterkonzern bekannt gegeben, das gemeinsam mit IBM geführte Joint Venture für Halbleiterkomponenten, Altis Semiconductor, zu verkaufen. Analysten werteten dies als weiteren Schritt Infineons, sich stärker als bisher auf seine Kernbereiche Kommunikation und Automobil- und Industriesektor zu fokussieren.

"Wir werden die Geschäftsschwerpunkte verlagern von den Bereichen, in denen die Margen nicht befriedigen - wie etwa im SIM-Kartengeschäft - hin zu Bereichen, wo die Margen deutlich besser sind", kündigte Ziebart im Gespräch an. "Fokussierte Halbleiterhersteller" seien "profitabler als Gemischtwarenläden", so Ziebart.

Einen wichtigen Schritt in diese Richtung hatte der Unternehmenschef bereits im vergangenen Jahr unternommen. Damals lagerte er das hochzyklische Speicherchipgeschäft aus und brachte es unter dem Kunstnamen Qimonda an die Börse. Seitdem kämpft Ziebart um die Profitabilität seiner verbliebenen Kernaktivitäten mit Logikchips.

Das wichtige Geschäft mit Chips für Kommunikationsgeräte konnte seine operativen Verluste im abgelaufenen Quartal von 53 Mio. Euro auf 34 Mio. Euro leicht reduzieren. Dennoch schreibt die Kommunikationssparte, die einen großen Teil von Infineon ausmacht, noch immer rote Zahlen.

Die Erwartungen der Investoren sind hoch: Bis zum vierten Quartal dieses Jahres will Ziebart das Geschäft mit Kommunikationschips in die schwarzen Zahlen drehen.

Zugleich drückt noch die 86-prozentige Beteiligung an Qimonda auf die Konzernbilanzen: Die Verluste aus dem Speichergeschäft ließen den Konzernverlust zuletzt von 11 auf 197 Mio. Euro anschwellen. "Diesen Anteil wollen wir vollständig abbauen", sagte Ziebart. "Wir werden Qimonda nach der Hauptversammlung 2009 nicht mehr konsolidieren."

Nach der Übernahme des DSL-Chipgeschäfts des Herstellers Texas Instruments und der Handychipaktivitäten des US-Konkurrenten LSI plant Ziebart nun weitere Übernahmen - insbesondere im defizitären Geschäft mit Kommunikationschips. "Hier sehen wir zurzeit die größeren Möglichkeiten", sagt er.

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Auch suche man weiter nach Kaufzielen für das zweite Infineon-Standbein, den Automobil- und Industriesektor. Gerade im profitablen Geschäft mit Chips für die Automobilelektronik sucht Infineon seit langem nach einem geeigneten Akquisitionsobjekt. Vor allem vom japanischen Automarkt verspricht sich Ziebart Wachstumsmöglichkeiten. Bislang aber ist der Konzern nicht fündig geworden. "Im Markt für Automobilhalbleiter ist die finanzielle Situation der meisten Unternehmen befriedigend, sodass sie keinen Druck zur Konsolidierung verspüren", so Ziebart. "Man könnte zu feindlichen Übernahmen schreiten, aber das kompliziert eine solche Transaktion und das wird auch meist sehr teuer. Wir werden auch nicht zu hohe, strategische Preise zahlen."

Analysten zeigten sich von den strategischen Plänen Ziebarts zuletzt überzeugt. In einer Studie stufte Dresdner Kleinwort die Aktien von Infineon in der vergangen Woche von "Reduce" auf "Buy" hoch und hob das Kursziel von 10 auf 18 Euro an. Der Chiphersteller sei auf dem besten Weg, zu einem der weltweit führenden Produzenten von Halbleitern für die drahtlose Kommunikation neben Texas Instruments und Qualcomm zu werden, schrieben die Analysten.

Spekulationen, wonach Infineon zum Übernahmeobjekt für Finanzinvestoren werden könnte, erteilte Ziebart eine Absage. Zwar habe es früher "Gespräche mit Private-Equity-Firmen gegeben", räumte er ein. Allerdings sei es in den vergangenen Monaten sehr ruhig um den Konzern geworden. "Mit Qimonda haben wir das wesentliche Wertschöpfungspotenzial, das in Infineon steckte - auf Neudeutsch den Break-up-Value -, selbst für unsere Aktionäre erschlossen", so Ziebart. "Damit sind wir für Finanzinvestoren nicht mehr so interessant."

Infineon und Ruhr-Universität Bochum gehen neuartige Forschungskooperation ein:
"Infineon und Ruhr-Universität Bochum gehen neuartige Forschungskooperation ein
21.08.2007 16:23:00
München (aktiencheck.de AG) - Der Halbleiterhersteller Infineon Technologies AG (ISIN DE0006231004/ WKN 623100) teilte am Dienstag mit, dass er mit der Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB) eine neuartige Forschungskooperation vereinbart hat.

Den Angaben zufolge tauschen Infineon und die RUB Spitzenkräfte für drei Jahre aus, um der Wechselwirkung von Marktanforderungen und der Schaffung grundlegender Innovationen mit größtmöglicher Synergie begegnen zu können. Mit dieser Art der Zusammenarbeit von Wissenschaft und Wirtschaft werde eine Stärkung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit angestrebt.

Den Anfang machte laut Infineon Prof. Dr. Josef Hausner, Inhaber des Lehrstuhls 'Integrierte Systeme' an der RUB. Er wechselte Ende 2006 zu Infineon als Vice President für Concept Engineering im Bereich Communication Solutions. Die Vertretung des Lehrstuhls von Prof. Hausner übernahm im April 2007 Dr. Attila Bilgic, Director System Engineering und verantwortlich für die Systemkonzepte im Bereich mobile Kommunikation.

Wie der Konzern, der gestern Abend die Übernahme des Mobilfunk-Geschäfts der LSI Corp. (ISIN US5021611026/ WKN 867761) ankündigte, weiter mitteilte, wird so Know-How wissenschaftlicher Experten zurück in die Industrie und damit unmittelbar dahin gebracht, wo eine Idee zur Innovation werden kann. Andererseits würden aktuelle Anforderungen, Marktveränderungen und vielfältiges Produkt-Know-How in die akademische Forschungslandschaft eingebracht."